And that's not allowing for the ten Democratic Senators in states that Trump won. Even giving them Flake's seat, they're still short. The Democrats need three more seats to take control of the Senate. It might shift, but it was still a Republican state in 2016. And one of those (Jeff Flake in Arizona) is something of a reach. Of the five Republican seats up for election in 2018, only two are regarded as vulnerable. Taking back the Senate would be even better, but there aren't enough vulnerable seats available.
Trump would still be president, but he would no longer be able to pass legislation alone. Taking back the House in the 2018 election would help as well. It's worth noting that all three of those lost for economic reasons more than anything else. Bush have lost a reelection bid since Herbert Hoover. The normal way to replace a president is to wait until the next election and do it. Even in the unlikely event that New York City seceded, it seems unlikely that it would succeed in removing Trump.īut hey, it's all fun to consider. Secession receives occasional discussion, but very few states actually try it. Yet there doesn't seem to be any serious movement among those who said that they would during the election. If people had been serious about emigration, there is nothing stopping them. The closest to being removed for policy reasons was Andrew Johnson, and that failed. Bush, and Ronald Reagan also had policies that were condemned by their opponents as unconstitutional and just plain wrong. But they are also popular among his supporters, however condemned among his opponents. Some might argue that his policies are worse. The closest would be the resignation of Nixon, and Trump hasn't done anything comparable to burglarizing his opponents. No president has ever been removed by impeachment. That would actually remove Trump from the presidency. So there's an argument that Trump would no longer be a natural-born citizen if New York City seceded. That's interesting, as Trump was born in New York. It's adjacent and overwhelmingly Democratic. For example, New England is as overwhelmingly Democratic as coastal California (NExit). I haven't heard of a serious movement for it, but it also seems possible that other places might do the same thing. This may not remove Trump from the presidency of the US, but it would remove Trump as president of those who secede. Of course, while their approval is necessary, it is not sufficient. While unlikely to cause the entire state to secede, it seems feasible that changing circumstances could cause the more liberal coastal regions to reject Trump's policies by secession. It's unclear how serious it is now, but there is a movement for California secession. SecessionĪt a higher level, regions could potentially secede. And both have sharply criticized Trump, so they may be willing to regard United States citizens as refugees easily. Non-celebrities may claim refugee status from Canada or Germany. If their protests remain ineffectual, perhaps they'll reconsider. During the election a collection of celebrities said that they were moving if Trump won. If individuals do not want Trump to be their president, they would probably find it easier to move them than Trump.
His resignation saved a lot of time and effort, but it still required an impeachable case with broad support in the Senate. Resignation seems simpler than impeachment on the face of it, but it's worth remembering that Nixon only resigned when he realized that he'd lose an impeachment. Again, fulfilling his campaign positions should not be regarded as an infirmity, temporary or not. Or there is some evidence of a temporary infirmity that will be fixed by a temporarily removing Trump from office. So Pence is extremely unlikely to take that temporary step unless Trump loses a lot of support. Such a move would be unlikely to endear Pence to Trump supporters. He might actually be more difficult to remove than Nixon was, as his fewer supporters feel more strongly about him.įor the same reason, it is unlikely that Mike Pence and the cabinet will declare Trump unfit. It seems unlikely that if it didn't prevent him becoming president, that it will be able to force him out. Trump hasn't done anything so far that wasn't part of his original platform. However, it's worth noting that it wasn't Nixon's policies that lead to his resignation but his actions. Presumably Trump could overreach in some similar way. Richard Nixon had broader but more shallow support than Trump, and he lost that support based on his illegal actions.
The first step to getting Trump to leave would thus be to convince a significant number of his former supporters to stop supporting him. Many of them would regard an impeachment as an electoral betrayal. Note that Donald Trump remains popular with his supporters.
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